Ups, downs of presidential popularity

COMMENTARY

PRESIDENT BUSH'S popularity ratings have broken all records since September 11, and remain in polling Nirvana to this day. But how long will this situation last?

Looking at the history of presidential approval polls since 1938, when the Gallup Organization started measuring chief executive job ratings during Franklin Roosevelt's second term, one thing becomes clear: 80+ percent poll numbers may linger for a while, but they don't last forever.

For the most part, Americans tend to rally around their president at stratospheric levels not so much as a reward for accomplishment or success but out of a perceived need for national unity - a coming together - in time of crisis.

Only four presidents, in addition to the incumbent, have seen their job gradings skyrocket into the 80+ percent range:

FDR reached his recorded pinnacle right after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, scoring 84 percent approval, and remaining at 80+ percent levels for about six months during the bleak, early days of the war.

Harry Truman scored best right after he assumed the presidency in April 1945, during the final, crucial phase of World War II upon Roosevelt's death. The feisty Missourian's approval hit 87 percent, and, like his predecessor, stayed in the 80-percent range for half a year.

Though elected in a photo finish in 1960, John Kennedy's popularity started high, in the low to mid-70s, and stayed there, for the most part, during his first two years in office. His 83 percent apex came right after the Bay of Pigs disaster, his greatest policy embarrassment.

Former President George H. W. Bush's ratings during his first two years in office ranged between the mid-50s to the mid-70s. They surged into the 80s for three months around the Gulf War, peaking at 89 percent - the Gallup Poll's historic high until his son, George W., topped out at a full 90 percent in the days following last year's terrorist attacks.

Five other presidents fall into the next rung, having'achieved ratings in the 70+ percent range:

Dwight Eisenhower's first-term popularity was consistently healthy, averaging mid-60s to low-70s. His zenith was 79 percent, recorded after his 1956 re-election triumph. Ike's secondterm numbers were weaker and more mixed.

Lyndon Johnson's ratings opened strong, reaching 79 percent, reflecting broad public support for the nation's new leader after the trauma of an assassination. But after his 1964 landslide win, poll-obsessed LBJ watched his standing spiral downward as the Vietnam War escalated.

Gerald Ford's first approval measure, 71 percent, got him into the 70+ club, but the membership didn't last long. Though voters appreciated the bright break he had made from the dark climax of Richard Nixon's troubled presidency, Ford's pardon of his disgraced predecessor was not so well received at the time, sending his numbers south.

Jimmy Carter's polls hit 75 percent during his first two months in office, but then charted a steady deterioration thereafter.

Astonishingly, Bill Clinton's popularity broke the 70 percent mark only once: right after he was impeached by the House of Representatives, when he registered 73 percent. Throughout his second term in office, despite the Lewinsky scandal, Clinton's ratings were good and remarkably stable, averaging in the low 60s - far better than in his first two years in office when they had languished mostly in the 40s.

Only two modern presidents failed to hit the 70 percent mark. Richard Nixon topped out at 67 percent twice; once in 1969, after a week of intense Vietnam War protests, and again in 1973, after the Vietnam peace agreement was signed.

Ronald Reagan's popularity started out in the low 50s, then jumped to a 68 percent high-point after the failed attempt on his life in March, 1981. The full John Hinckley bounce lasted only two months, however. Reagan's numbers didn't climb back into the 60s until after his big 1984 re-election victory.

The sharp range of popularity ups and downs have varied across presidencies. The biggest gap between highest and lowest scores was Truman's 64 points (87 percent vs. 23 percent, the historic nadir). George H. W. Bush sported a 60-point range; 17 months after his approval hit 89 percent, it had plummeted to 29 percent. Kennedy, who is the only ex-president never to dip below 50 percent, had the tightest range: 27 points (83 percent to 56 percent).

Besides Truman and former President Bush, only Carter and Nixon ever dropped below the 30 percent line: the former, at one point, weighed in at a puny 28 percent; the latter, prior to his resignation, had sunk to 24 percent.

[Sidebar]

For the most part, Americans tend to rally around their President at stratospherically high levels not so much as a reward for accomplishment or success but out of a perceived need for national unity - a kind of coming together -in time of crisis.

[Author Affiliation]

Ron Faucheux is editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine. For his ongoing handicapping of elections across the nation, see The Political Oddsmaker, available on the Web at www.campaignline.com.